Understanding Project Progress in KTern.AI: Baseline vs Actual vs Forecast

In KTern.AI, project progress tracking is anchored in structured, date-based logic, visualized through trends like the one shown below. This graph helps compare how the project is performing against what was planned (baseline) and what is currently expected (forecast). Here’s how each metric is defined and calculated, with examples from the graph.

1. Baseline Progress (%)

Definition:

Represents the original committed progress based on the baseline end dates defined during planning.

Calculation Logic:

• Grant total of Baseline % of Deliverable Group Level. Baseline End Date is used  to sum by month.
  
• Note: 
  
• Baseline % values are provided by the Motiva Kaar PMO team post approval from the Motiva PQL team.

       Example from Graph:

• On May 2025, baseline progress reaches 90.00%.
• This means that, according to the original plan, 90% of the project should have been completed by then.

Purpose:

This line serves as a static benchmark to assess delays or advances in execution.

2. Actual Progress (%)

Definition:

Captures the real execution status based on actual completion of tasks.

Calculation Logic:

• Grand total of Actual  % of  nth level activities.​ Actual end date is used to sum by month. ​

Example from Graph:

• As of June 17 2025, actual progress is 71.29%.
• This indicates that although the baseline expected 90% by May 25, only 71.29% was truly completed by mid-June.

Purpose:

This shows the real work completed, regardless of planned or baseline timelines.

3. Forecast Progress (%)

Definition:

Estimates how much work should be completed, based on the current project plan and any re-forecasting.

Calculation Logic:

• Grant total of Planned % of Deliverable Groups.​ Planned End Date is used to sum by month. ​

Example from Graph:

• On Aug 2025, forecast progress is 96.36%.
• This suggests that based on the latest revised schedule, 96.36% completion is expected by that date.
• Compare this to actuals: if actuals lag behind, it shows potential risk.

Purpose:
Forecast is a dynamic guide, adapting with replanning or updated timelines.

Summary Table

Progress Type	Source Date Field	Level of Calculation	Graph Example
Baseline	Baseline End Date	Deliverable Group (5th Level)	90% on May, 2025
Actual	Actual End Date	Task Level (Nth)	71.29% on June 17, 2025
Forecast	Planned End Date	Deliverable Group (5th Level)	96.36% on Aug 2025

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